Published: September 2025
A friend chatted to me over dinner recently. He was concerned that property values were still falling in some parts of the country and even more distressed about the thought of selling his home in the near future. As I listened, I wondered how many other New Zealanders are sitting with the same fear?
For starters, yes, there are reasons for concern. But we also live in a country with many strengths — stable institutions, resource-rich land, relative safety, and ongoing demand for housing. That said, the recent data shows that the property market is more mixed and subdued than some of the more bullish periods we’ve had.
What does this mean for the real estate economy, and how are your property and financial goals likely to be affected in the near term?
The national median house price in July 2025 was NZ$767,250, a modest increase of +1.8% compared to July 2024 [1]. Excluding Auckland, the median was NZ$695,000, while Auckland itself recorded NZ$975,000 [1]. The House Price Index (HPI) rose only +0.3% year-on-year in June 2025, showing very subdued growth [2]. In Christchurch, the average property value was NZ$769,984 in June 2025. However, over the most recent 3-month period, values dipped slightly (–0.96%) [3].
Nationwide, the number of sales increased in July 2025 compared to the same month in 2024 [1]. This marks a seasonal strength despite winter usually being a quieter period, showing renewed buyer activity [1].
The number of new listings has decreased compared with a year ago, leading to tighter supply across multiple regions [1]. At the same time, the median days to sell has increased, meaning buyers are taking longer to commit, and vendors need to remain realistic [1].
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.00% in August 2025, its lowest level in three years [5]. As a result, some fixed mortgage rates are now offered at ~4.75%, making repayments more affordable compared to the peaks of 2022–2023 [5].
The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the June 2025 quarter, up from 4.7% a year earlier [4]. Underutilisation — people wanting more or better work hours — has also increased, showing growing spare capacity in the labour market [4]. Wage growth remains modest, with private sector wages rising by +2.2% year-on-year [4].
The New Zealand property market in late 2025 is flat to mildly positive, with stronger regions balancing out weaker ones:
Overall, the outlook is for slow, steady adjustment rather than dramatic swings. This benefits long-term investors and provides opportunities for first-home buyers entering a less overheated market.
References
[1] REINZ – July 2025 Market Update
[2] RNZ – Housing Market Steady on the Surface (June 2025)
[3] CoreLogic / Opes Partners – Christchurch Market Update
[4] Stats NZ – Unemployment Rate at 5.2% (June 2025)
[5] Reuters – RBNZ Cuts OCR to 3.00% (Aug 2025)