Spring 2025 has delivered a lift in energy across Christchurch — more listings, more buyers, and more movement. But as Leah and Nathan discuss on Real Talk, the market is anything but uniform. Some suburbs are running hot, others are cooling from oversupply, and national buyers are reshaping affordability on the ground.
Below is a comprehensive breakdown of what’s really happening — plus Nathan’s broader thoughts on policy, economics and the future of New Zealand’s property landscape.
1. Lifestyle Suburbs Are Booming — Especially West Melton
“West Melton is still the rockstar,” Nathan says.
Big sections, privacy, and a neighbourhood feel continue to draw buyers from across New Zealand and overseas. People coming from Queensland, Queenstown, Auckland, and Wellington are bringing equity and paying premiums.
Limited supply + national buyers = peak-level prices.
2. Growth Areas Are Slower Because of High Supply
Rolleston, Kaiapoi and Rangiora are flooded with new stock — especially townhouses.
Properties are selling, but:
Days on market are longer
Presentation matters more
Pricing discipline is critical
3. Christchurch City Fringe Townhouse Glut
Townhouses are everywhere right now.
With so much choice, buyers are selective and price growth is subdued.
When a suburb has scarce stock and national demand, prices can break new records.
This is exactly what's happening in lifestyle pockets like West Melton.
Nathan highlights that:
Deep local buyer knowledge
A strong national database
Off-market outreach
…are driving results well above expectations for sellers.
Leah and Nathan explain off-market (or pre-market) campaigns as a strategic, discretion-driven approach.
Why Sellers Choose Off-Market:
Less hassle: fewer open homes, fewer disruptions
More privacy: ideal for high-profile clients or families who value quiet processes
Potentially higher prices: buyers often pay a premium to secure a home before competition
Market feedback: early interest (or lack of it) informs the public campaign strategy
Nathan notes that in the right circumstances, off-market sales can achieve 10–15% above market value.
But it’s not a silver bullet — it only works when:
The agent has the right buyers
The property fits what those buyers want
The suburb is tightly held with national interest
How National Buyers Are Changing Local Affordability
National and international buyers are powerful players in the Christchurch market right now.
Upside for existing owners:
Higher sale prices → more cashflow, upgrades, debt reduction, or funding for children.
Downside for locals:
First-home buyers feel squeezed out when out-of-region buyers bring larger deposits and higher budgets.
Inflation is sitting around 3 percent, and interest rates have eased slightly.
This combination has brought more buyers off the sidelines.
But two forces are keeping the market balanced:
1. High Inventory
Plenty of stock means prices aren’t skyrocketing despite more activity.
2. Policy Uncertainty
Political messaging can shift sentiment overnight, but housing health depends on long-term stability — supporting first-home buyers and protecting existing owners.
Nathan notes that sustainable growth looks like 2–4% per year, not the extreme swings of prior cycles.
For Buyers
Use high-inventory suburbs (Rolleston, Kaiapoi, Rangiora) to negotiate harder
Focus on well-presented homes in lifestyle areas — good stock moves fast
Consider off-market options if you want less competition
Work with agents who understand where national buyers are coming from and what they pay for
For Sellers
Presentation and pricing matter more than ever in crowded markets
Lifestyle suburbs with low stock may give you peak-level results
Off-market could be the right move if you value discretion or want to test the waters
Upsizing, downsizing or reinvesting? 2025 offers strategic opportunities
For First-Home Buyers
Get pre-approved early
Target areas with balanced supply and slower growth
Understand what national buyers are doing — not all suburbs feel their influence equally
For Investors
Stay focused on:
Rental yield
Vacancy rates
Long-term growth drivers
Realistic interest rate trends
Don’t chase headlines — chase fundamentals.
Nathan’s Broader Policy Views (As Discussed on Real Talk)
These are Nathan’s personal perspectives and proposed ideas, shared candidly during the episode.
1. Education Reform — The School Voucher System
Nathan supports:
A voucher-style education system where funding follows the student
Parents choosing any school — public or private — that best fits their child
More competition among schools to drive quality
Incentives for new private schools that focus on values, discipline, and innovation
Less bureaucratic control and more parental influence
He believes decentralised education promotes higher standards and personal freedom.
2. Drug Legalisation & Crime Reduction
Nathan argues that:
Drug prohibition finances gangs, dealers, and crime
Legalisation removes the profit motive — no financial benefit in “creating an addict”
Regulated availability could reduce harm compared to the current black market
3. Tax Code & Family Incentives
His position:
Stop financially incentivising single parenthood through welfare
More support for married couples raising children together
Significant tax incentives for families with three or more kids
Welfare access linked to marital stability over an 18-year period
Nathan’s belief: strong family units → stronger society → stronger economy.
4. Big Pharma Regulation
Nathan proposes:
Banning direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising
Ensuring drugs are proven effective before being approved
Limiting the markup between production cost and consumer price
5. Retirement & Superannuation
His suggestion:
Increase retirement age to 70
After 65, earn up to $200,000 per year tax-free
Encourage people to work longer, stay healthier and save more
Reduce pressure on NZ’s superannuation system
6. Entitlement Program Reform
Nathan believes:
Welfare should be for people with legitimate issues
Recipients should undergo quarterly drug testing
Where possible, people on benefits should work for government or community services
Taxpayer support should lead to positive societal contribution
7. Immigration Pause
Nathan suggests:
A 12-month freeze on immigration
Focus on supporting the ~5 million current residents first
Once internal issues are stabilised, reopen immigration responsibly
8. Housing Affordability
His proposal:
Builders who construct starter homes under $600k pay 0% tax
Incentivise new supply specifically for first-home buyers
Restore affordability for younger generations
9. Supporting Small Business
Nathan argues that:
Big corporates can absorb costs like minimum wage rises — small businesses cannot
Over-regulation kills competition
NZ needs incentives that help small business owners survive and grow
Entrepreneurial families and risk-takers should be celebrated and supported
10. Cultural Shift: Turning the Right People Into Role Models
Nathan wants to:
Celebrate hard-working parents, tradies, police officers, young entrepreneurs
Highlight people who’ve overcome adversity
Launch a “Turnaround Program” honouring individuals who rebuilt their lives
Replace “influencer culture” with real hero culture
11. After-School Non-Fiction Book Clubs
Nathan supports:
Required reading programs for young people
Building a culture where reading = freedom
His own story: he failed most subjects in school except maths — then read over 1,000 books and transformed his life