Why Early 2026 Is a Good Time to Buy and Which Suburbs to Watch

If you’re thinking about buying a house in NZ in 2026, it’s important to look beyond the headlines. Property markets don’t move on emotion alone — they move on data. Supply, demand, interest rates, and policy decisions all work together, and when these factors align, real opportunities appear.

In the first Real Talk IN video of 2026, real estate agent and market analyst Nathan Najib explains what’s really happening in the New Zealand housing market, why buyers now have more leverage, and what sellers must do differently in a buyer-led environment.

This article breaks down those insights using real data from REINZ and realestate.co.nz, helping buyers, sellers, and investors make informed decisions in 2026.

Supply vs Demand: One of the Key Driver of House Prices 

NZ House prices are heavily influenced by the balance between housing supply and buyer demand.

Between 2018 and 2021, New Zealand experienced a perfect storm:

Demand surged

Supply couldn’t keep upInterest rates fell to record lows

The result was rapid, unsustainable price growth.

What the Data Shows (2018–2025)
2018–2019: Market largely balanced

2020–2021: Demand spiked, supply tightened

2022–2024: Supply increased, demand cooled

2025: Supply clearly outpaced demand

By January–November 2025, there were approximately 367,799 properties listed nationwide, with 73,251 sales. Including December, total housing stock approached 398,000 properties, one of the highest levels seen in years.

This surplus of stock explains why prices haven’t surged, even as interest rates eased.

Why Prices Aren’t Rising Despite Lower Interest Rates

Lower interest rates don’t automatically mean higher house prices. That only happens when supply is limited.

In 2020–2021:

• OCR dropped, Mortgage rates fell below 3%
• Supply was constrained
• Demand overwhelmed the market and prices soared.
• The Difference in 2025–2026
  OCR: ~2.25%
• 1-year fixed mortgage rates: ~4.4%–4.9%
• Supply: Increasing strongly
• Demand: Improving, but controlled

This balance is intentional. Policymakers are aiming for affordability and stability, not another boom. As a result, demand is being absorbed without pushing prices sharply higher.

This is why buying a house in NZ in 2026 looks very different from buying in 2021.

Why 2026 Is a Buyer’s Market

Buyers currently have advantages not seen for several years.

1. More Choice
High stock levels mean buyers are no longer competing for limited properties. If one home doesn’t suit, there are alternatives.

2. Stronger Negotiation Power
When supply outweighs demand:

• Vendors are more flexible
• Conditional offers are common
• Pricing negotiations are realistic

3. Fewer Panic Decisions
FOMO has largely disappeared. Buyers can take their time, complete due diligence, and make better long-term decisions.

4. Smarter Long-Term Buying
Rather than overpaying at the peak, buyers in 2026 can position themselves for steady, sustainable growth.

Buyers are active, but not at levels that overwhelm supply.

What This Means for Sellers in 2026
While it’s a buyer’s market, good homes still sell well. Sellers simply need to adapt.

Sellers Can’t Rely on the Market Alone
In 2026, execution matters more than ever.

1. Hire the Right Agent
   Local expertise can make the difference between an average result and a premium one. Pricing, positioning, and marketing all matter.
2. The 3 P’s Sellers Must Get Right
   Present it well – staging, photography, video Price it well – realistic and transparent pricing Promote it well – strong online and social media marketing

Christchurch Suburbs to Watch in 2026
Christchurch continues to offer strong opportunities across multiple price points.

Investing Strategy: Growth First
Nathan Najib’s investment approach is simple:

• Capital growth first
• Rental yield second
• Long-term stability
• In Christchurch, buyers can often purchase two properties in high-growth eastern suburbs for the price of one in premium western areas, improving overall portfolio performance.

What to Expect for the Rest of 2026
Based on current trends:

• Supply should remain elevated
• Demand will improve gradually
• Price growth is likely to sit around 2–4%
• This is a normalisation phase, not a boom or bust cycle.

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